College Football 2k17: The Preview
We're so close, y'all. Just a few days from the most wonderful time of the year. (Yes, I know games technically started last week, but no matter how much half-hearted promotion ESPN tries to push on us, you and I know that Stanford beating a mid-major by 50 points in Australia doesn't count as the start of College Football.)
There are thorough college football season previews everywhere, in both web and print. So why read this one? Because nobody knows college football more than fat guys who have never played the game but like watching from their couches.
Let’s go conference-by-conference:
ACC
The Favorite:
Florida State
The Challenger:
Clemson
The Dark Horse:
Miami
The ‘Noles usually win the unwanted title of ‘Perennially Overrated Team’ (though less so since the days of Jimbo and Jameis), and there are reasons to be wary of their vaunted preseason hype yet again. After all, they play in the same division as the defending National Champions, and have to play them in Death Valley this year. What’s more, their O-line is a big question mark. That being said, it’s hard to look at the ridiculous returning defensive talent and the way QB DeAndre Francois played down the stretch and not feel good about FSU as a national contender this year. Don’t count out Clemson, though…in the last 5 years, they’ve never rebuilt as much as they have reloaded.
Miami is certain to warrant many a scoff for their preseason expectations, and it’s true, the once-proud program has had a decade of mediocrity. But if they’re going to finally make their first ACC Championship, it will be this year; they, by some margin, return the most talent in the annual free-for-all that is the Coastal Divsiion, and have a proven coach in Mark Richt. With little to go on from any other competitors in the division, I’ll pick Miami to finally put it together this year and earn their way to the ACC title game.
The Pick: Florida State over Miami in the ACC Championship
Big XII
The Favorite:
Oklahoma
The Challenger:
Oklahoma State
The Dark Horse:
Texas
Oklahoma certainly deserves to be the favorite in the Big 12. They’re the two-time defending champions of the conference, and return Heisman finalist Baker Mayfield at QB. That being said, I don’t think the departure of Bob Stoops can be understated. I’m sure the good people of Norman, OK don’t expect to miss a beat with young up-and-comer Lincoln Riley at the helm, but a coaching change is a coaching change, and he’s replacing a man who has been the culture of Oklahoma football for almost 2 decades.
At the same time, it’s going to once again be a competitive league at the top, with Oklahoma State and Kansas State also returning most of their key players. Keep an eye on Texas, though. Sure, the Longhorns haven’t been relevant since Colt McCoy left town. But Tom Herman is no joke and he’s walking in to a ton of talent in Austin. Ultimately, I think Mike Gundy and the mullet finally best his rival and take down the upstart Longhorns for the Big 12 title. Will it be a good enough season for them to crash the playoff, though? Methinks not.
The Pick: Oklahoma State over Texas in the Big XII Championship
Big Ten
The Favorite:
Ohio State
The Challenger:
Penn State
The Dark Horse:
Wisconsin
The Big Ten race was the most thrilling one of 2016, and this year figures to be no different. Sure the jury is and will be out on how elite their top teams truly are, but with Ohio State coming back from their playoff humiliation last year with a chip on their shoulder and an absurd amount of talent, they’ll be firmly in the national championship mix. Penn State won the league last year despite being significantly younger than their challengers, and starting 1-2. It’s not hard to imagine them crashing the playoff at all. Michigan figures to take a step back in Year 3 under Harbaugh, but will still be entirely capable of notching a big-game win. And keep an eye on Wisconsin; they may have lost 3 games last year, but they were inches from beating Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State each. They should have little trouble running the table in the big Ten West, and from there, who knows?
Still, I think Ohio State’s— and more importantly, Urban Meyer’s —thirst for redemption will carry them to triumph in Indianapolis and ultimately, into the playoff.
The Pick: Ohio State over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship
Pac-12
The Favorite:
USC
The Challenger:
Washington
The Dark Horse:
Stanford
After 8 consecutive years of the North Division dominating the Pac-12, might the balance of power in the conference finally be shifting back south? USC finished the year better than anyone last year, winning their last 9 games. That stretch included Washington’s only regular-season loss, and a thrilling Rose Bowl triumph over Penn State. With stud QB Sam Darnold and many of the crucial pieces around him returning, it makes sense to peg them as the favorites.
And I do think SC will return to glory this year, but it’d be foolish to count out Washington. The Huskies may have been bested by the Trojans on the field last year, but did ultimately win the conference and go to the playoff. They lose a fair amount of crucial parts from that team, specifically on defense, but still return star QB Jake Browning and have one of the best coaches in the game. Stanford, too, has never stayed down for long, and don’t expect them to have another ‘disappointing’ 9-win year like they did last year.
The Pick: USC over Washington in the Pac-12 Championship
SEC
The Favorite:
Alabama
The Challenger:
Auburn
The Dark Horse:
Georgia
It wasn’t all that long ago that SEC used to absolutely own college football. But now, it’s been 1 title in the last 5 years, and it’s been almost a decade since a team not from Alabama was the premier team in the SEC. Indeed, Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide have turned the SEC into somewhat of a mockery, and don’t be surprised if that trend holds steady this year. Last year, they had a sputtering offense with a true freshman Quarterback, and still were within seconds of winning their 2nd straight Championship. So yes, they’re the preseason #1.
Ironically enough, one of the only SEC teams that’s been able to be a thorn in Saban’s side since coming to Alabama is their hated rivals, Auburn. They’ve beaten Bama thrice under his tenure, and 2 of those times went on to play in the national title. They may just be the Tide’s bogey team again this year, as they return most of the pieces from their Sugar Bowl season last year.
In the East? It’s honestly becoming less relevant than either the ACC Coastal or the Big Ten West. Georgia has a load of talent on both sides of the ball, so they get the pole position by default. Will they beat Alabama and win the SEC? No, they will not.
The Pick: Alabama over Georgia in the ACC Championship
Group of Five
The Favorite:
South Florida
The Challenger:
Boise State
The Dark Horse:
Wyoming
USF, coming off an 11-win season, is everyone’s trendy pick to crash the New Year’s Six bowl this year, which makes me worried they’ll make like Houston last year and crash and burn gloriously. Still, Charlie Strong as coach + Quinton Flowers at QB + relatively easy schedule = $$$.
Boise State, though, the perennial favorite of the little guys, might be poised to once again prove their mettle on the big stage. They’ll have a tougher time, however, as the Mountain West should be downright competitive with defending champion San Diego State in the mix as well as Wyoming, who I think everyone would do well to keep an eye on. The Cowboys were the shock of the season last year, winning 9 games and earning a bid to the conference championship. They have a QB who is rated as the #1 draft prospect in 2018 (no, really) and a couple opportunities to make a huge splash with games against Iowa and Oregon.
Preseason NY6 Predictions
ROSE BOWL SEMIFINAL
(2) Ohio State vs. (3) Florida State
SUGAR BOWL SEMIFINAL
(1) Alabama vs. (4) USC
Peach Bowl
Clemson vs. South Florida
Fiesta Bowl
Washington vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami (FL)
Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Auburn