Grammy Preview: Album of the Year Contestants
Though the nominees for the 2018 Grammy Awards will not be unveiled until a month from today, the year of eligibility ended on September 30th, meaning everything released from October 2016 to the end of of last month is eligible to be nominated in the next ceremony, and nothing after will be recognized until the 2019 ceremony. What this means is that, mercifully, we have at least a year and a half until Taylor Swift wins a disgusting amount of Grammys again. What this also means is that on top of the number of noteworthy releases that have come in 2017, there are some big names that dropped music last Fall/Winter who are also in the mix for the sweepstakes. It will undoubtedly be a crowded field for every category, but here is an overlook at the contenders for what is largely considered the top Grammy of them all, the Grammy's 'Best Picture', if you will: Album Of The Year.
Surefire Candidates
DAMN. // Kendrick Lamar
The album that ruled the music scene for the first half of the year is an extremely safe bet to be nominated for the top honor of the night. Kendrick Lamar's first two full-length releases were nominated for Album of the Year, and DAMN. was both better-selling than 2012's good kid, m.A.A.d city and nearly as critically acclaimed as 2015's To Pimp A Butterfly. What's more, the last time we saw Lamar at the Grammys, he was taking home the most awards on the night of anyone. It's safe to say the same might be true this time around, as DAMN. is sure to top critics' year-end lists.
÷ // Ed Sheeran
Though these first two aren't quite the givens Beyoncé and Adele were last year, I would be very surprised if Ed Sheeran doesn't join Kendrick as a nominee for this award. The Grammys love rewarding the "biggest album that's also somewhat decently reviewed" (see: Taylor Swift and Lady Gaga, all. the. time.), and Sheeran's Divide-- stylized ÷ -- more than fits that bill this year. Singles like "Shape Of You", "Castle On The Hill" and "Perfect" have ruled the radio airwaves, and ÷ is better reviewed than his last album x (notice a theme?), which was nominated for Album of the Year in 2014. Given the voters' preference for Not-Rap, I'd peg ÷ as the frontrunner for the award.
Contenders
24K Magic // Bruno Mars
That's right, don't forget about Bruno! It was a 2016 release, but 24K Magic missed the October cutoff last year, and its singles have been on the radio for a year now. The mixed critical response stops this from being a shoo-in. However, with megahits like the title track and "That's What I Like", and with how dynamic of a performer Bruno is, it's not hard at all to foresee 24K Magic being one of the 5 nominees.
Concrete And Gold // Foo Fighters
I couldn't tell you anything about Foo Fighters' latest album, nor could I tell you why there's a high possibility that it will be nominated for AOTY over many higher-deserving albums. But the Grammys love themselves some Foo Fighters. What's more, in a year of mostly solo artists doing the standout work, the Grammys might wish to have a good old-fashioned band nominated.
Ctrl // SZA
SZA has burst on the scene as of late, and though she's the furthest thing from mainstream, she's already extremely well-respected in music circles, having collaborated with the likes of Kendrick Lamar and Maroon 5. Critics were high on Ctrl, and Grammy voters may be eager to recognize a young upstart, especially in R&B, an oft-underrepresented genre.
From A Room: Vol. 1 // Chris Stapleton
There's been very little discussion of Stapleton's work, as it relates to Grammy recognition. Then again, his 2015 album Traveller wasn't exactly a Grammy frontrunner, yet he found himself nominated for the top prize. From A Room has met similar critical acclaim to its predecessor, and the Grammys love having a Country nominee of late.
Joanne // Lady Gaga
For an album from Lady Gaga, Joanne didn't receive much fanfare. Indeed, it only inclued two radio singles, and had mixed reviews from critics. Still, Lady Gaga is Lady Gaga, and the versatility and vulnerability she shows in this album might be enough to push her into the field.
Melodrama // Lorde
Lorde's sophomore effort flew somewhat under the radar. That's almost shocking, given how much of a splash the then-17 year old's debut album made a few years back, but it speaks to the more muted and more mature tone seen in Melodrama. It may not have been as much of a commercial smash as 2013's Pure Heroine, but critics LOVED this album, and that + Lorde's name recognition as the young ingenue of pop music give this a real shot.
Rainbow // Kesha
"Kesha, Grammy contender" is a descriptor I never thought I'd write. But it's true: after a year of a very public and very heartbreaking trial regarding sexual assault by her producer, Kesha has re-emerged, reinvented from alcohol-fueled club party icon into genuine songwriter and talent. In what is likely contrary to any expectation, Rainbow is one of the better-reviewed major releases of the year, and a nomination for Kesha could be an incredible storyline.
Starboy // The Weeknd
Like Bruno Mars before him, The Weeknd had a big release near the end of 2016 that people have been sleeping on in the Grammy discussion. After all, the Canadian R&B/pop artist was nominated for Album of The Year in 2016 for The Beauty Behind The Madness. Ironically, it may be Mars and co. that keep the Weeknd out, as Starboy's release and ensuing singles were somewhat drowned out by the radio domination of 24K Magic.
The Weight Of These Wings// Miranda Lambert
As previously mentioned, the Grammys have started to include Country in the general nominations fairly consistently. If a Country album is to be represented, it's highly likely it would be a well-reviewed, vulnerable piece of work by one of country's biggest stars.
You Want It Darker // Leonard Cohen
The great Leonard Cohen passed away in November of 2016, just weeks after the release of this album. The circumstances are eerily similar to the passing of David Bowie last year, shortly after Bowie's album Blackstar. As a result, I can almost cut/paste what I wrote for Bowie's work last year here in this space for Cohen: the Grammy hype train has already begun for Cohen's You Want It Darker. But lest you think that a nomination would just come as a result of the sympathy train, know that the album was also met with large critical acclaim, garnering an aggregated score of 92/100 from critics.
Longshots
4:44 // Jay-Z
It was a year full of phenomenal rap, and there's no bigger name in the game than Jay-Z. 4:44, Jay's 'confessional' of sorts, was released to rave reviews as well. So why on earth would this be a longshot for being a nominee? Sadly, the Grammys are simply unlikely to nominate more than one Rap album, and if there's only going to be one, it's going to be DAMN.
"Awaken, My Love! // Childish Gambino
Donald Glover (stage name Childish Gambino) dropped "Awaken, My Love!" just in time for Christmas last year, and though it wasn't a commercial sensation, it was delightful. Glover is one of the most talented people on the planet, and "Redbone" should be a contender for Song or Record of the Year. That being said, though the album covers a multitude of genres, it will likely be shoehorned in as a "rap" album, which makes it unlikely it'd be recognized over the likes of Kendrick or Jay. Damn.
Harry Styles // Harry Styles
Harry Styles could mimic Justin Beiber's transition from teeny-bop megastar to Grammy-nominated artist; like Beiber, Styles' audience skews young, as his self-titled album is his first since being a member of teen sensations One Direction. Unlike Beiber's work, Harry Styles (the album) included a variety of themes and evidence of mature songwriting. However, also unlike Bieber's album, it didn't have a bevy of radio hits on its tracklist.
Pure Comedy // Father John Misty
As has been discussed a couple times in this article, the Grammys are prone to surprise. This would be a massive surprise, as Father John Misty not only is as alternative as they come, but also seems as if he would be as awards-show-averse as they come. But he's got the sound voters have liked in years past, and Pure Comedy was a critical hit.
Triplicate // Bob Dylan
Probably won't happen, as Triplicate was fairly overlooked, considering the artist. But come on! It's Bob Dylan! Nothing's impossible!
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Prediction time; who will the 5 actually be? It's hard to say, because the Grammys seem to change up the philosophy every year. Two years ago, indie icon Beck took the award but all other nominees were the year's biggest pop stars in Beyoncé, Pharrell, Sam Smith and Ed Sheeran. The last 2 years, there was much more variety, with pop, rap, rock and country artists all recognized. So according to the 2015 model, it would be something like:
DAMN.
÷
24K Magic
Rainbow
Starboy
but the trend of recent years would see a nominee field more like:
DAMN.
÷
24K Magic
Melodrama
The Weight Of These Wings
I have no idea which direction this year's voters will go-- I've talked myself into predicting about 11 different nominees. So, with no consistent nomination trend to go on, I'll just use Kendrick Lamar's opponents in 2016 as my precedent. After all, in that year, he had the year's best-reviewed and most talked-about album, despite it being released in April, so there's one parallel to DAMN. already! Anyways, the genre landscape in the field in 2016 was: rap, mega pop artist, familiar (albeit less-acclaimed) pop artist, rock darling, country. Using that model, my prediction for the 5 nominees are:
24K Magic, Bruno Mars
Concrete And Gold, Foo Fighters
DAMN., Kendrick Lamar
÷, Ed Sheeran
The Weight Of These Wings, Miranda Lambert
Do leave your thoughts and/or predictions in the comments!